Since independence, Indonesian foreign relations have adhered to free and active foreign policy. Facing dynamic domestic and international landscapes, Indonesia’s diplomatic strategies have evolved over time, exhibiting distinctiveness across different periods. From the nationalism and anti-colonial strategy of the Old Order period, the developmentalism and pragmatism strategy of the New Order period, to the integration of multilateralism and the “hedging+” strategy of the democratic reform period, Indonesia’s diplomatic strategy has been progressively systematic and proactive. The Prabowo administration, taking office in 2024, is expected to focus its foreign policy on neighboring nations and economic development, reinforcing Indonesia’s three-pronged identity, namely an emerging economy, a middle power, and the country with the world’s largest Muslim population. These efforts aim to enhance Indonesia’s global influence in the Global South, the Asia-Pacific region, and international affairs at large.
Xu Liping, Researcher of National Institute of International Strategy, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Director of Southeast Asia Research Center
In October 2024, Prabowo formally assumed office as Indonesia’s eighth president. Within approximately two weeks of his inauguration, he embarked on a 16-day diplomatic tour across six countries, showcasing a proactive, decisive, and resilient diplomatic stance. Prabowo Administration is at the consolidation stage of Indonesia’s democratic reform period, operating in a domestic and international environment similar to that of the Joko times. Based on Prabowo’s policy agenda and personal style, it is expected that he will uphold the integration of multilateralism and “hedging+” strategy while reinforcing Indonesia’s commitment to independent and active foreign policy to expand its regional and global influence.
First, the Prabowo administration strengthened neighborhood diplomacy to maintain regional peace and stability. Speaking before the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) Indonesia during his campaign, Prabowo committed himself to the principle of good neighbor diplomacy as a pivotal direction. Embracing the philosophy of “a thousand friends are too few, one enemy is too many”, his good neighbor diplomacy aims to create a peaceful and stable regional environment for his own country, with ASEAN as the cornerstone. As the largest economy in ASEAN, Indonesia considers the bloc a vital platform for its middle-power policy and safeguards solidarity and stability within ASEAN. Additionally, as another part of its good neighbor diplomacy, he seeks to strengthen relations with neighboring countries such as China and Australia through both traditional and non-traditional security cooperation to uphold regional peace and stability.
Second, it rolled out economic diplomacy to enhance middle power. Prabowo actively promotes the 2045 Golden Indonesia Vision, a plan that requires sustained high economic growth. This presents a formidable challenge for his administration. For Joko, rolling out economic diplomacy has attracted significant foreign investments, fueling rapid infrastructure development and maintaining robust economic growth with controlled inflation, achieving a 45% GDP growth compared to a decade ago. As for Prabowo, building on the strategies of the Joko Administration, diplomatic resources can be mobilized to further attract international investments. Prabowo’s first diplomatic tour as president signified his commitment to economic diplomacy. He has engaged in bilateral and multilateral meetings not only with state leaders but also with business executives, securing investment commitments worth approximately $18.5 billion for Indonesia, and bolstering market confidence.
Third, the Prabowo administration leveraged existing multilateral institutions to strengthen the “hedging+” strategy. Indonesia stands as the sole ASEAN member state within the G20 and plays a significant role in APEC. Within these multilateral frameworks, Indonesia holds considerable influence and seeks to leverage them to balance relationships with major powers on critical issues, while also engaging in pragmatic cooperation in key areas. The G20, comprising the world’s major economies, has evolved into a core platform for global economic governance. Its agenda has expanded from initial fiscal and financial issues to encompass a broader range of topics related to economic governance, including trade, investment, development, refugees, and climate change. This expansion provides Indonesia with avenues to advance its “hedging+” strategy and will further enable Indonesia to enhance its capabilities in areas such as food security, energy security, and digital transformation.
APEC, as the premier economic cooperation organization in the Asia-Pacific in terms of its level, comprehensive coverage, and influence, is playing a pivotal role in establishing the Asia-Pacific as a central hub for global economic growth. Amid the rise of deglobalization and trade protectionism, coupled with the “decoupling and supply chain disruption” of certain major powers, APEC is confronted with daunting challenges. At the 2024 APEC Peru Summit in Lima, Prabowo proposed three key initiatives: First, strengthening clean energy transitions and climate change responses through resilient infrastructure cooperation. Second, bridging the technological divide by promoting inclusive digital transformation and technology transfer among member economies. Third, enhancing governance, poverty alleviation, and anti-corruption collaboration. Through the APEC platform, Indonesia aims to further liberalize and facilitate trade and investment while reinforcing international cooperation in clean energy, digital transformation, poverty reduction, and anti-corruption.
Fourth, it emphasized Indonesia’s three-pronged identity to support the Global South. As an emerging economy, a middle power, and the country with the world’s largest Muslim population, Indonesia is a key player in advancing the development of the Global South.
First of all, Indonesia enhanced its role as an emerging economy by actively engaging in BRICS cooperation. During his visit to Brazil in November 2024, Prabowo reaffirmed, “Since I began my presidential campaign in 2014, I’ve been committed to bringing Indonesia into BRICS. BRICS is set to become a nascent force with significant influence on the global economy”. On January 7, 2025, Indonesia officially became a BRICS member, marking a significant diplomatic milestone for Prabowo Administration. In response, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Indonesia issued an open statement asserting, “As a diverse nation experiencing continuous economic growth, Indonesia is committed to actively participating in the BRICS agenda. Indonesia will contribute to economic resilience, technological cooperation, and sustainable development, and will work alongside other members to address global challenges such as climate change, food security, and public health”. It is foreseeable that Indonesia will further leverage its influence as an emerging economy to reform global governance institutions and make positive contributions to deepening Global South cooperation.
Moreover, the country strengthened its identity as a middle power and pursued middle-power cooperation. At the G20 Summit in November 2024, Brazil, Prabowo attended the second Middle Powers Cooperation Forum. This forum serves as a consultative platform to facilitate inclusive collaboration and address global challenges. For Indonesia, the strategic significance of middle-power partnerships is particularly pronounced, primarily due to its robust defense industry collaborations with South Korea and Turkey. For instance, it has worked together with South Korea on the development of the KF-21 fighter jet and partnered with Turkey in the production of the Kaplan MT medium-weight tank, which will bolster Indonesia’s overall middle-power standing.
Thirdly, Indonesia emphasized its status as the country with the world’s largest Muslim population by actively fostering cooperation within the Group of Eight Islamic Developing Countries (D8). Founded by Turkey in 1997, the D8 comprises Bangladesh, Egypt, Iran, Malaysia, Nigeria, Pakistan, and Indonesia. As the country with the largest Muslim population in the world, Indonesia aspires to showcase the strength of the Muslim community on the global stage and play a more active role in shaping the world order. The D8 aims to uphold the unity of its member states, enhance consultation and communication in international forums, and strengthen cooperation in areas such as finance, tourism, energy, trade, health, and environment. In December 2024, Azerbaijan joined as the first new member since the organization’s inception. At the 11th D8 Summit in December 2024, Egypt, Prabowo expressed the need to leverage the geopolitical advantage of D8 and focus on developing a blue economy. As the host of the D8 2025 summit, Indonesia seeks to unlock the economic potential of Muslim markets and aims to exert greater influence in deepening complementary cooperation among D8 member states.
In conclusion, the historical trajectory of Indonesia’s diplomatic strategies underscores a commitment to strategic autonomy and non-alignment, with nationalism as a central theme and multilateralism as a guiding principle. Facing the impact of Trump 2.0, Southeast Asia countries will encounter constraints such as trade protectionism and unilateralism, rendering their development prospects fraught with uncertainty. As a prominent middle power and emerging economy, Indonesia’s diplomatic strategy is poised to inject stability and certainty into regional and global development, playing a more constructive role in the Global South.
Source: Contemporary World
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