Interview with Philippine Expert Lucio Pitlo: Navigating Challenges and Building Trust in the South China Sea

Recently, Lucio Pitlo, a research fellow at the Asia-Pacific Pathways to Progress Foundation in the Philippines, spoke with China-ASEAN Observation about the challenges surrounding the Code of Conduct in the South China Sea (COC). He highlighted the complexities of defining the COC’s legal binding nature and geographic scope, stressing the need for political trust among littoral states to meet the 2026 deadline for its conclusion.

Photo/Xinhua

As the COC consultations reach their third reading, there is a growing optimism for a rules-based framework that can help ensure peace and stability in the region. Pitlo offers a balanced and insightful assessment of the COC’s progress and prospects, emphasising the importance of legal clarity, geographic coverage, and political will.

Beyond the COC negotiations, Pitlo outlines tangible areas for China-ASEAN cooperation, including fisheries, renewable energy, marine environmental protection, and disaster response. He argues that these “low-hanging fruit” can serve as confidence-building measures that foster trust and mutual benefits without prejudicing territorial claims. As he aptly notes, the South China Sea should be perceived not as a flashpoint, but as a sea of cooperation and shared opportunities.

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COA: The “Code of Conduct in the South China Sea (COC)” has recently completed its third reading. How do you assess its value in establishing a rules-based framework for the South China Sea? What efforts are needed for the next steps in COC consultations?

Lucio Pitlo: All parties involved in the COC negotiations are eager for an early conclusion. But at the same time, there are also some stumbling blocks, especially concerning the document’s legal binding nature and the geographic extent of the South China Sea it addresses. These two issues are critical to expediting the finalisation of the COC.

With Malaysia holding the ASEAN chairmanship this year and the Philippines set to take over next year, both countries, as littoral states, have a great interest in finalising this document promptly.

There is cautious optimism that while there is a desire to meet the 2026 deadline, legal and technical obstacles remain, along with the need for political acceptance among claimant parties and their willingness to compromise. It is also important to look at these variables as we move forward.

COA: What cooperation opportunities exist between China and ASEAN member states in the South China Sea?

Lucio Pitlo: There is considerable potential for cooperation between ASEAN and China, particularly in pursuing a blue economy related to fisheries and energy, including boat, petroleum and renewable resources. In fisheries, China has already developed substantial capacity, technology, and best practices in marine farming. Transferring this agricultural technology, skill and knowledge to developing countries in the South China Sea could be very helpful in enhancing food security for neighbouring countries of China.

In terms of energy, while there are ongoing discussions about joint development of offshore oil and gas, there is significant potential for cooperation in renewables like offshore wind and solar farms. China, to me, has already made notable advancements in technology. Investment in this area by China’s enterprises can benefit the coastal provinces of South China Sea littoral states.

Additionally, existing mechanisms and organisations like the Southeast Asia Fisheries Development Corporation (SEAFDEC) offer a platform for ASEAN and China to promote cooperation in low-hanging areas like fisheries.

ASEAN and China can explore collaborative marine science and environmental initiatives by bringing experts together to discuss joint fishing stock assessments and strategies to address depleting fishing stocks, especially in certain areas of the South China Sea, including the possibility of a coordinated fishing ban or moratorium.

COA: China and ASEAN have deepened practical cooperation in areas such as marine environmental protection, scientific research, and search and rescue operations. What constructive role do these collaborations play in maintaining stability and development in the region?

Lucio Pitlo: Productive and practical resource cooperation can push through confidence and trust among the coastal states of the South China Sea. Such cooperation can positively influence how neighbouring countries perceive one another, especially if structured in a manner that does not undermine the claims of the coastal states. This approach can ensure buy-in from all parties and foster greater interest in collaborative efforts. Such arrangements would help improve the public perception of fellow claimant states.

This would contribute to more spaces for potential cooperation in areas outside these low-hanging fruits and pave the way for further cooperation on non-traditional security threats like combating marine pollution, addressing ocean litter, and enhancing search and rescue operations for humanitarian assistance and disaster relief.

Progress in practical resource collaboration can generate new opportunities for cooperation.

COA: If asked to convey a key message about the future of the South China Sea, what would you emphasise and why?

Lucio Pitlo: The South China Sea is a sea of cooperation and friendship among the littoral states. While there are challenges to manage, existing bilateral and regional efforts aim to ensure that this semi-enclosed sea is effectively governed. It is crucial to address differences and minimise accidents to prevent crises and conflicts.

I believe ASEAN countries and China should invest enormous effort in concluding the COC as quickly as possible while also strengthening interim measures. Even if there are some delays in finishing the document, existing bilateral and regional tracks should be in place to manage incidents. It is essential for the countries involved to practice self-restraint to avoid miscalculation and accidents.

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