Filipino Scholar Anna Malindang Uy: Managing Conflict to Prevent South China Sea Escalation

The South China Sea issue has long been a focal point in regional dynamics. The consultation process of the "Code of Conduct in the South China Sea (COC)" and the cooperation between China and ASEAN on marine matters have drawn significant international attention. Anna Malindang Uy, an independent scholar and analyst from the Philippines, offers insightful interpretations of these key issues based on her professional background and unique perspective.

She emphasises that "peaceful negotiation" and "cooperation on common ground" are the keys to the future development of the South China Sea. Claimant states should prioritise cooperation in "low politics" areas, deepen partnerships to enhance understanding, create conditions for the long-term resolution of disputes, and achieve regional peace, stability, and prosperity.

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Ren'ai Reef.

COA: The “Code of Conduct in the South China Sea (COC)” has recently completed its third reading. How do you assess its value in establishing a rules-based framework for the South China Sea? What efforts are needed for the next steps in COC consultations? 

Anna Malindang Uy: The Code of Conduct in the South China Sea is crucial for establishing norms and measures that guide how claimant states should behave, which helps prevent or de-escalate tensions and conflicts, especially between the Philippines and China. In that regard, the COC is very important.

However, as we are still in the third reading, the key question is how the process will advance and what elements of the COC will be prioritised. While the negotiation process is moving forward, it remains challenging in terms of substance, as several terms and definitions are still under discussion.

I believe the negotiation process is vital because it brings all claimant states, along with ASEAN and China, together to discuss their perspectives. This facilitates mutual understanding beyond superficial interactions. However, we still need clarity on whether the COC will be a binding mechanism, which remains uncertain. It is a long journey ahead. Furthermore, it is important to recognise that the COC is not a tool for conflict prevention but rather a mechanism for crisis management. This distinction is essential for setting realistic expectations regarding the COC. Nevertheless, I sincerely hope it will be concluded soon.

COA: China and ASEAN have deepened practical cooperation in areas such as marine environmental protection, scientific research, and search and rescue operations. How do you access these efforts in alleviating tensions arising from sovereignty disputes?

Anna Malindang Uy: That is an excellent question. The South China Sea dispute encompasses two primary dimensions. One is maritime rights, and the other is territorial sovereignty. We claim sovereign rights because of the economic zone which it is based on. The overlapping claims and differing points of reference among claimant states complicate matters.

In my view, these are complex issues that are unlikely to be settled anytime soon, perhaps not even within my lifetime. However, what is important is the management of these disputes to prevent escalation into a military conflict among claimant states. And how would you do that? I think claimant states should focus on areas of cooperation, which I refer to as “low politics”, since sovereignty and territorial issues fall under “high politics”.

Areas like fishing management or fishery management in the South China Sea, environmental protection in terms of maritime resources, scientific research, and rescue operations are part of the low politics that all claimant states can pursue collaboratively. Engaging in these partnerships can help manage conflicts more effectively.

For now, it is vital to focus on low politics and manage the conflicts, to prevent tensions from escalating into military conflicts, especially with external powers like the United States and Western allies justifying their presence in the South China Sea under the banner of “freedom of navigation”.

COA: What is your assessment of the future of China-ASEAN marine economy cooperation?

Anna Malindang Uy: I think a marine cooperation, especially in the exchange of scientific knowledge, technology and management of maritime resources in the South China Sea between China and ASEAN states, are very promising. Why? Precisely because China is advanced in these areas and can share technology, knowledge, and practices with ASEAN member states, especially regarding fisheries management and marine conservation. I think China is leading in this area, so the more the two sides cooperate, the better the outcomes will be.

And it is very promising to a greater extent. This collaboration does not directly engage with high politics issues like territorial disputes or sovereignty issues, making it more feasible. For instance, sustainable development is a shared concern that all countries can agree upon. Promoting sustainable practices and marine preservation in the South China Sea is a goal that resonates universally, and I believe there will be broad consensus on this.

Thus, I see significant potential for China and ASEAN to enhance their cooperation in these fields. This partnership can lead to deeper mutual understanding, which may contribute to resolving disputes in the long run—though that resolution will take time.

COA: If asked to convey a key message about the future of the South China Sea, what key phrases would you emphasise and why?

Anna Malindang Uy: I think I have two words for the global public regarding the South China Sea dispute. One is “peaceful negotiation” and the other is “cooperation on common ground”. These concepts are very important for addressing the complexities of the South China Sea dispute.

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