Calvin Khoe, Secretary of Foreign Policy Community of Indonesia(FPCI) and Lead Analyst, FPCI Research and Analysis
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not represent the opinions of the institution. These views are purely personal.
The relationship between China and Southeast Asian countries has been closed and substantive. Singapore Prime Minister Lawrance Wong described the relationship as the most substantive compared to other ASEAN dialogue partners.
No doubt, the relationship will continue to be strong, robust, substantive, and progressive. This October in Vientiane, Laos, the ASEAN-China summit concluded several joint statements particularly on two important attributes: people to people and trade.
However, the relationship faces many challenges from within and abroad. In this summit, the situation in Myanmar and the South China Sea dominated the conversation among leaders. In the shadow, concerns over stability in the Taiwan Strait and growing tension between the US and China do exist in the back of Southeast Asian minds.
Bearing in mind the above context, how does Southeast Asia oversee its relationship with China?
Southeast Asians appreciate China. Because China is a fast learner. Beijing learns its relationship with Southeast Asia cannot be about ideology, but it should be about respecting the strategic autonomy of every country and collaborating for development. This answers why trust between Southeast Asian countries and China grows rapidly since China began its relationship with ASEAN in 1991.
Since 1991, China has always been the first to ASEAN. The first to accede to the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation, the first to be a strategic partner of ASEAN, the first two becoming the Comprehensive Strategic Partner of ASEAN, and the strong supporter of the Regional Comprehensive Strategic Partnership.
China is a Southeast Asian strategic partner in the past, present, and future. The ASEAN People's Perception Survey Report last year, published by Foreign Policy Community of Indonesia (FPCI) in cooperation with the Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA), found that 41,41% of respondents see China as a relevant partner of ASEAN's future compared to the US with 14,81%. Indonesian President Elect Prabowo Subianto set a target of 8% for Indonesian economic growth. Analysts believe to achieve it, a partnership with China is needed.
Different from other ASEAN dialogue partners that are still talking about which areas need to be deepened and explored, ASEAN and China should come up with breakthroughs on difficult issues, one of which is the disputes in the South China Sea. Why? Because hiccups that happened in the South China Sea places trust in China becomes volatile. And the grown strategic trust shall be nurtured.
There are two policy suggestions. First, the importance of the code of conduct on the South China Sea being a legally binding document. ASEAN-China processes on the South China Sea have been for more than two decades. The positive result of it is that there have been no major incidents or open conflict in the dispute waters. Therefore, we cannot end up with a weak code of conduct.
Second, self-refrain and avoid incidents in the South China Sea. This is the most important element in managing stability in the region. There is an understanding in Southeast Asia that the South China Sea is also important to the domestic politics of China, but in the same situation, it is also important to the claimant’s domestic politics. We cannot ignore the fact that the region is becoming militarized because of it.
I would argue that the game changer that would shape the regional security architecture in the region is a strong code of conduct. Although it does not resolve the disputes, it will become an example of conflict management between major countries and a regional grouping, like ASEAN. This is also in line with both Beijing and ASEAN interest in showing that they could manage their own business without the involvement of other major countries like the US.
The above policy suggestions are addressed to the governments, or track 1, on the non-governmental level, or track 2. I allude to one suggestion. To add more track 1.5 forums and continue to talk about political security on it. Forums like the Jakarta Forum, the Boao Forum in Hainan Island, and the ASEAN-China Future Relations Forum in Viet Nam are good examples that need to be supported by both sides. The recent ASEAN-China joint statement also endorsed multiplying track 1.5 dialogue between experts from ASEAN and China.
All in all, the relationship between China and Southeast Asia is fundamentally resilient. But we cannot take it for granted the current situation—growing trust, high trade volume, high volume of tourist visits, etc. We need to continue nurturing the relationship.
When I did my graduate school thesis defense in the China Foreign Affairs University, I concluded my speech with this note: China and Southeast Asia is best to be described as a relationship of 老好朋友 ( lǎo hǎo péng yǒu). The relationship is old and good enough to overcome difficult conversations with good intentions and deeds.
(If you have a specific expertise, or would like to share your thought, please send us your writings at CAobservation@outlook.com)
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